Forex i Stocks, CFD i Futures. Devizno tržište i tržište hartija od vrednosti

Defensive-oriented stocks have managed to limit their losses in the face of this session's slide. Specifically, utilities stocks and consumer staples stocks are down just 0.1%, while telecom stocks are down 0.3% and health care stocks are off by 0.4%.
In contrast, cyclical plays are in the worst shape as financials trade with a 1.6% loss and energy stocks slide 1.4%. Consumer discretionary stocks are down 1.1%, collectively.
Overall, the broader market is down 0.8%.

"The slowdown in the job market and the coming fiscal tightening suggest weak growth is here to stay. However, we still see only a 25% probability of an outright recession in the next year, which is slightly above the historical average."

The major equity averages are down modestly in the first few minutes of trade. While underlying losses are broad, financial stocks (-1.3%) and energy stocks (-1.0%) are under the most pressure.
Weakness among stocks and heightened volatility has sent Treasuries higher. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is up an impressive 15 ticks and the 30-year Bond is up more than a full point.

Suggests employment could slow further in the Fall.

Miller Tabak still expects a growth slowdown in H2, says 10y going to 3% at yr-end.

U.S. stocks were poised to slip Tuesday, as optimism from the previous week faded and renewed worries about European banks and the global economy weighed on investors.

Fears that European banks may be in worse shape than what recent financial stress tests indicated also spooked investors
The renewed worries come after an analysis in the Wall Street Journal early Tuesday said Europe's stress tests -- aimed at measuring the health of the nation's financial sector -- understated major banks' holdings of government debt.
Companies: Shares of Oracle (ORCL) gained 6% in pre-market trading after the business software maker said it has hired former Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) CEO Mark Hurd as its president.
Meanwhile, Barclays (BCS) shares sank more than 5% after the British bank announced its CEO John Varley will retire March 31. Bob Diamond, the bank's U.S.-born president and investment banking chief, will replace Varley.
World markets:

Oil futures for October delivery dropped $1.36 to $73.24 a barrel. Gold for December delivery fell $2.50 to $1248.60 an ounce.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.65% from 2.71% late Friday.

Retains a heavy tone with recovery attempts holding below broken support at $1.5345. The move below $1.5322 (38.2% $1.4228/1.5999) to $1.5317 seen adding to the negative weight, with a break and clear below here now to open a deeper move toward $1.5300, with more stops noted on a break of $1.5290. Through here and rate can sink on toward $1.5250. Resistance currently seen at $1.5345/50.

Recovery attempt said to have met semi official supply on approach to $1.2760, with rate currently holding back around $1.2748. Bids remain in place from earlier lows at $1.2738 through to $1.2730 with talk of stops in place between $1.2730/25. A break here brings $1.2713 into view (61.8% retrace of rally from $1.2588 to $1.2916). The move lower has brought into view a large $1.2600 strike option expiry for Thursday's NY cut.

Data released
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (Aug) 3.8% 3.7% 3.8%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (Jul) -2.2% 0.5% 3.6%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul) 14.0% 20.8% 28.5%

The euro slid the most in more than two weeks against the dollar as weaker German factory orders and concern that government-bond assets will hinder European banks’ fiscal health undermined the outlook for economic growth.
The German Banking Association, which said the country’s 10 biggest lenders may need another €105bn of additional capital.
“Reports in the last 24 hours have renewed investor concerns about European banks, and that’s hurting the euro,” said Adam Cole, head of global currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada Europe Ltd. in London.
The European Union tested 91 lenders in July, giving 84 passing grades.
Andrew Bosomworth, a fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., said yesterday that Greece still faces a “substantial” risk of debt default when its bailout program expires in three years.
The euro extended its decline after a report showed German factory orders unexpectedly fell in July. Adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, orders declined 2.2% from June, when they surged a revised 3.6%, the Economy Ministry said today. That’s the biggest drop since February 2009. Economists forecast a 0.5% gain.
The yen strengthened for a second day as the Bank of Japan refrained from announcing a fresh increase to bank loans at its policy meeting. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark overnight rate at 0.1%.
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board left its bank-loan facility at 30 trillion yen ($357 billion) after boosting the liquidity injections at an Aug. 30 emergency meeting.
Australia’s dollar dropped as Prime Minister Julia Gillard won the backing of key independent lawmakers, keeping her party in power.
The currency also weakened after the Reserve Bank of Australia said following a policy meeting that the global economic outlook remains “somewhat uncertain.”
The Reserve Bank of Australia, as expected, kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive month at 4.5%.

EUR/USD fell from $1.2816 to $1.2734. Rate holds within the narrow range a bit higher lows.

GBP/USD printed session high on $1.5425 before falling to a new session lows around $1.5314. Rate still under pressure.

USD/JPY retreated from Y84.24 to Y83.70 before recovered a bit to Y83.82.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index, which is followed at 1400GMT by the Employment Trends Index for August and at 1430GMT by the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.
Later data includes the 1900GMT release of US Treasury STRIPS data as well as the 2100GMT release of the weekly ABC News Survey.

EUR/USD: $1.2715, $1.2800, $1.2825/30, $1.2900, $1.2925
USD/JPY: Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.45, Y85.00
AUS/USD: $0.9100, $0.9075

Holding up well on the back of some strong dollar buying after disappointing German Mfg data has put the euro on the back foot. Falls have so far been limited to $1245 ahead of the NY opening. The metal is currently trading around $1246

- UK parliament will see national budget first
- Doesn't support EU resolution fund proposal

AUD/USD filled earlier bids from an Asian Sovereign name around $0.9130 and the aussie dipped briefly to a session low of $0.9092, on sales in AUD/JPY triggered by Shirakawa's earlier comments. The pair has since regained $0.9110.

The euro suffered on Tuesday amid renewed concerns over the health of the eurozone financial system.

Analysts said investors’ nerves were heightened by news from the German Banking Association, which said the country’s 10 biggest lenders may need another €105bn of additional capital.
Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas said the outcome of the European bank stress tests were being put in doubt. He added that there were increasing signs that countries on the periphery of the eurozone, such as Greece and Portugal, were showing a frightening decline of growth momentum, with the risk that these economies were moving into a debt spiral. “There are increasing signs that fundamentals are falling in line with our long-term bearish call on the euro,” Mr Redeker said.
Meanwhile, increasing concerns over the global economy helped boost haven demand for the dollar and the yen.
The US dollar also climbed against the Australian dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia, as expected, kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive month at 4.5%. Although the announcement was widely forecast, the Aussie dollar suffered after Glenn Stevens, RBA governor, issued a relatively dovish statement, expressing confidence in the recovery in the Australian domestic economy but saying global growth was “somewhat uncertain”.
“Although markets were not pricing a rate hike in this meeting, strong economic data out of Australia since the previous monetary policy statement seems to have raised market expectations of a more hawkish statement,” said Raghav Subbarao at Barclays Capital.

Falling S&P futures and poorer than expected German manufacturing data has weighed further on the price of WTI Crude with the price falling through support at $73.25 and the Sep 2 low of $73.07 to a session low of $72.63. Spot crude now trades $72.78-83.

Resistance 3:Y86.40
Resistance 2:Y85.50
Resistance 1:Y84.30
Current price: Y83.86
Support 1:Y83.50
Support 2:Y82.30
Support 3:Y81.80
Comments: Dollar remains under pressure, holding a bit higher session lows on Y83.50 (also 15-years lows). Break under will target Y82.30. Further support comes at Y81.80 (May'1995 low). Resistance comes at session highs on Y84.30. Stronger level is at Y85.50 (resistance line from Jul 14). Further target is around Y86.40 (Aug 13 high).

Resistance 3: Chf1.0630
Resistance 2: Chf1.0310
Resistance 1: Chf1.0240
Current price: Chf1.0142
Support 1: Chf1.0060
Support 2: Chf0.9960
Support 3: Chf0.9910
Comments: Rate recovers, heading for Chf1.0240 (Sep 03 high, channel line from Aug 11). Above the target is around Aug 30 high at Chf1.0310. Strong resistance comes at Chf1.0630 (Aug 11 high). Support is near session lows on Chf1.0060. Below losses may extend to Chf0.9960 (Dec 03/09 low) and Chf0.9910 (Nov 26/09 lows).

Resistance 3:$1.5600/20
Resistance 2:$1.5480
Resistance 1:$1.5400
Current price: $1.5359
Support 1: $1.5350
Support 2: $1.5320
Support 3: $1.5120

Comments: Rate holds near session lows on $1.5350 (also Sep 02, 06 lows). Below losses may widen to $1.5320 (Aug 31 lows, 38,2% Fibo of $1,4230-$1,6000 move). Further support comes at $1.5120 (50,0% Fibo of $1,4230-$1,6000 move). Session high is at $1.5400 (minor resistance), stronger level is at $1.5480 (resistance line from Aug 16). Break above opens the way to $1.5600/20 (Aug 23 and 26 high).

Germany: July Real Sa Manufacturing Orders -2.2% M/M

Resistance 2:$1.2960
Resistance 2:$1.2880
Resistance 1:$1.2820
Current price: $1.2765
Support 1: $1.2750
Support 2: $1.2660
Support 3: $1.2590
Comments: Rate remains under pressure, heading to a channel line from Aug 24 at $1.2750. Below support remains at Sep 01 on $1.2660, then - at $1.2590 (Aug 24). Resistance comes at hourly high at $1.2820, then - at $1.2880 (overnight higs). Stronger resistance comes at $1.2960 (50% Fibo $1.3330-$1.2590).

The WTI October contract has slipped further in the European morning as the euro-dollar comes under increasing pressure following the EU stress test analysis results. This fall in the euro is making dollar denominated commodities more expensive for the majority of nations and this allied to a surplus in supply is weighing on the price of a barrel of Oil which has slipped through support at $73.56 to $73.25.

The US Labor Day holiday yesterday officially signals the end of the driving season, where less than anticipated demand for gasoline has been very evident. Bulls will be watching closely for developments on Tropical Storm Hermine which hit the NE Mexico coast today but without any serious damage, and Tropical Storm Gaston in the Atlantic which has a 70% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours according to the National Hurricane Center. Crude trades $73.35-40.

EUR/USD: $1.2715, $1.2800, $1.2825/30, $1.2900, $1.2925
USD/JPY: Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.45, Y85.00
AUS/USD: $0.9100, $0.9075

-Will take firm measurs on forex when needed
-Recent currency moves are clearly one-sided
-Worried about yen impact on corporate profits and hollowing out of industry

CHINA STOCKS: Shanghai Composite Index closes up 0.08% at 2,698.36.

- Authorities cannot control fx markety
- Global capital moves cause mkt fluctuations
- Monetary policy not responding to each mkt move
- High yen discouraging firms from capex
- But firms buying overseas firms with high yen
- Swiss franc, yen attracting safe haven demand
- Fiscal balance key to stable long-term rates
- Japan term rates down after last credit ease.

Data:
03:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Sep 7) 0,1%
04:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
04:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep 7) 4,5%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Aug) Preliminar 98,2
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Jul) Preliminar 101,8

The euro fell the most in a week on concern sovereign-debt risk will hinder the fiscal health of European banks, denting prospects for the region’s recovery.
The 16-nation currency weakened after an industry group said Germany’s 10 largest lenders may need fresh capital to meet new regulations.
The yen strengthened for a second day as the Bank of Japan refrained from announcing fresh liquidity injections at its policy meeting today.
Australia’s dollar dropped after Prime Minister Julia Gillard won the backing of key independent lawmakers, allowing her party to retain government.
German lenders, including Deustche Bank AG, need to raise about 105 billion euros ($134 billion) to reach an estimated 10 percent Tier 1 capital ratio, a key measure of financial strength, Dirk Jaeger, who is responsible for regulatory topics at the Association of German Banks, said yesterday.
European stress tests of major banks understated some lenders’ holdings of potentially risky government debt, the Wall Street Journal said, citing its own analysis. The European Union tested 91 lenders in July, giving 84 of them passing grades.
The yen gained versus all the major currencies as the Bank of Japan kept interest rates and the size of its liquidity injections unchanged. Policy makers held the benchmark overnight rate at 0.1 percent.

EUR/USD: the pair has fallen in around $1,2760

GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,5350-$ 1,5420

USD/JPY: the pair decreased below mark Y84,00

US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index, which is followed at 1400GMT by the Employment Trends Index for August and at 1430GMT by the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index. Later data includes the 1900GMT release of US Treasury STRIPS data as well as the 2100GMT release of the weekly ABC News Survey.

FTSE -39.01 -0.72% 5,400.18, CAC -34.50 -0.94% 3,650.23, Dax -44.59 -0.72% 6,110.45

The dollar fell against higher- yielding currencies as stocks advanced on signs the global economic recovery remains in place, sapping demand for the greenback as a haven.
U.S. companies added more jobs than forecast in August, according to a Sept. 3 report. U.K. factory production grew at a record pace in the third quarter on surging export demand, the Engineering Employers Federation said today.
The euro was near a more than two- week high against the dollar before reports this week forecast to show the recovery is gaining strength in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.
The shared currency was near its strongest in a week against the yen before data tomorrow forecast to show German factory orders expanded for a second month.
German factory orders rose 0.5% in July after gaining 3.2% the previous month, economists said before the Economy Ministry report. Industrial production expanded 1%, a separate survey showed before the Sept. 8 figures.
The European Central Bank last week raised its 2010 economic growth forecast to about 1.6% from its previous prediction of 1%, and increased its 2011 projection to 1.4% from about 1.2%.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,2865-$ 1,2920

GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,5485, but fallen in around $1,5350 later

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y84,00-Y84,50

US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index, which is followed at 1400GMT by the Employment Trends Index for August and at 1430GMT by the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index. Later data includes the 1900GMT release of US Treasury STRIPS data as well as the 2100GMT release of the weekly ABC News Survey.

Japan's benchmark stock indices ended the day lower, sliding in afternoon trade, weighed by the yen's renewed rise against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 ended the day down 75.32 points, or 0.81%, at 9226.00. The broader-based TOPIX was down 3.82 points at 834.89 . Volume for the Nikkei constituents totalled a preliminary 10.2 bln shares in the session, with 30 issues trading higher, 179 lower and 16 unchanged.

Japanese stocks rose for a fourth day as better-than-expected jobs data in the U.S. eased concern recovery in the global economy is faltering and as the yen fell.

Fanuc Ltd., an industrial robot maker that gets about 80 percent of its revenue abroad, jumped 3 percent. Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s largest commodities trader, gained 3.7 percent after oil and copper prices increased on Sept. 3. Elpida Memory Inc. surged 9.5 percent as Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. recommended Japan’s sole maker of computer-memory chips. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. rose 3.5 percent after cargo rates increased. T&D Holdings Inc. led insurers higher.

Most European stocks advanced, extending a four-week high for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as a report on U.K. manufacturing eased concern that the economic recovery is faltering.
GN Store Nord A/S rallied 6.1 percent after an arbitration tribunal awarded the world’s biggest maker of mobile headsets about 2.2 billion kroner ($380 million). E.ON AG and RWE AG climbed more than 2 percent as Chancellor Angela Merkel proposed an extension of nuclear power that would let reactors owned by Germany’s largest utilities avert a planned shutdown by 2022.
The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1 percent to 260.74 at 2:40 p.m. in London as two stocks gained for each one that declined. The gauge advanced the most since July last week as reports showed accelerating growth in U.S. and Chinese manufacturing and increased hiring by American companies. Today’s Engineering Employers Federation data showed U.K. factory production grew at a record pace in the third quarter on surging export demand.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 16 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX all rose 0.3 percent.
The number of U.K. manufacturers saying sales rose in the three months through September exceeded those reporting declines by 33 percent, compared with 30 percent in the second quarter, the EEF and accountancy firm BDO Stoy Hayward LLP said in a quarterly survey released today. That’s the highest since the report began in 1995. A gauge of exports also rose to a record.

U.S. equity markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Resistance 3:Y85.60 (resistance line from May 5)
Resistance 2:Y85.20 (resistance line from Jul 14)
Resistance 1:Y84.30 (session high)
Current price: Y83.92
Support 1:Y83.90 (session low)
Support 2:Y83.60 (15-years low)
Support 3:Y81.80 (low of May, 1995)

Comments: The Pair remains in the field of a 15-years low. The nearest support - Y83.90. Below loss may extend to Y83,60. The nearest resistance - Y84,30. Above growth is possible to Y85,20 and further to Y85,60.

Resistance 3: Chf1.0240 (resistance line from Aug 11)
Resistance 2: Chf1.0190 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Chf1.0130 (session high)
Current price: Chf1.0121
Support 1: Chf1.0080 (session low)
Support 2: Chf1.0060 (Sep 1 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9960 (low of December)

Comments: The Pair become stronger in around Chf1,0120. The nearest resistance - Chf1,0130. Above is located Chf1.0190. The nearest support - Chf1,0080. Below loss may extend to Chf1,0060.

Resistance 3: $ 1.5600/20 (Aug 23 and 26 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5480 (resistance line from Aug 16)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5400 (session high)
Current price: $1.5366
Support 1 : $1.5350 (around of session low, Sep 2 and 6 low)
Support 2 : $1.5320 (Aug 31 low, 38,2 % FIBO $1,4230-$ 1,6000)
Support 3 : $1.5120 (50,0 % FIBO $1,4230-$ 1,6000)

Comments: The Pair bargains in the field of $1,5360. The nearest resistance - $1.5400. Above growth is possible to $1,5480. The nearest support - $1,5350. Below loss may extend to $1,5320.

Switzerland Unemployment Rate (Aug) 3.8%

Resistance 2: $ 1.2960 (38,2 % FIBO $1.3330-$ 1.2590)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2900 (Aug 17-18 and Sep 6 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2880 (session high)
Current price: $1,2804
Support 1 : $1.2790 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2740 (Aug 31 high)
Support 3 : $1.2660 (Sep 1 low)

Comments: The Pair decreased in around $1,2800. The nearest support - $1,2790. Below loss may extend to $1,2740. The nearest resistance - $1,2880. Above growth is possible to $1,2900.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 +187.19 +2.05% 9,301.32
Hang Seng +384.27 +1.83% 21,355.77
FTSE 100 +11.04 0.20% 5,439.19
CAC 40 +12.53 +0.34% 3,684.73
DAX +20.42 +0.33% 6,155.04

03:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Sep 7) 0,1% 0,1%
04:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
04:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep 7) 4,5% 4.5% 4.5%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Aug) Preliminar 98.2 99.0
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Jul) Preliminar 101.8 101.3
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (Aug) 3.7% 3.8%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (Jul) 0.5% 3.2%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul) 20.8% 28.4%
18:00 USA Fed's Beige Book (Sep 8)
21:00 USA ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence (Sep 5) -45
23:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Jul) ¥865B ¥769B
23:50 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Jul) 144.9%
23:50 Japan Adjusted Current Account (Jul) ¥1362.9B ¥1360.0B